As the Covid-19 pandemic gradually eases, countries around the world have slowly begun to relax lockdown measures. Some countries have also launched varying types of economic stimulus to support the solar sector. In contrast to others, the Chinese market is stable, as the country has had some success in controlling the virus.

With demand turning out better than anticipated in the second quarter and the spread of Covid-19 slowing in some overseas markets, PV InfoLink has raised its forecast for annual global module demand to 121.1 GW.

Countries across the globe have launched solar stimulus packages in the wake of Covid-19, as part of wider moves to restart their economies. Shipments to the traditional leading European markets such as Spain and Germany have remained stable, sitting at 410 MW and 383 MW, respectively. Other marketplaces including the United States, the Middle East, and Australia, are also showing signs of recovery. They are likely to return to normality in the second half.

The situation in Latin America is quite the opposite. The region’s politics and economy took a heavy blow amid virus outbreak and oil price crash. Demand weakened in April, with total module shipment volumes from China to Brazil, Mexico, and Chile having dropped nearly 75% compared to March. India’s further extension of lockdown has also hindered its demand recovery. Compared to March, China’s exports of modules to the country slumped by 65% in April. The situations in these marketplaces, however, did not change the fact that overall demand in Q2 fared better than initially expected.

It is expected that markets will be totally reopened in July. As overseas markets start picking up during the second to early third quarter, demand will turn better at the end of September and reach the peak of the year in the final quarter.

With the pandemic being gradually contained in many countries, global demand is likely to grow each quarter in the second half. However, as demand from quite a few projects have been deferred by the pandemic to the first half of 2021, the recovery will remain slow at the beginning of the third quarter and begin to climb, with demand reaching the highest level of the year in the fourth quarter of the year.

The impacts of Covid-19 on the global solar sector may yet continue into 2021. Despite being hammered by the virus crisis, the world’s progress toward a low-carbon and sustainable future remains unchanged. Solar power, which has seen significant reductions in upfront cost and LCOE in recent years, will continue to lead the way in the long term.

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